We now know the Cowboys will have the #16 pick overall for this May’s Draft, but what we don’t know is what they will do with the pick. Conventional wisdom clearly suggests the Cowboys will address a decimated defense with the pick. The wild card, as it is every draft is whether or not Jerry Jones will trade the pick to move up or down. As the GM, Jerry has been very active when it comes to the first round, so we’ll see what happens. One thing I do know is that Jerry is due for a blockbuster trade and that is scary if you’re a Cowboys fan.
Predicting when Jerry will make a splash is almost a science, and if we look at recent trades, and when they have occurred, then we are primed for something to happen. Let’s look at previous trades and why he made these audacious deals.
Joey Galloway was brought to Dallas for (2) first round picks, and was a bust coming out the gate – literally. Here’s where the pattern begins when trying to evaluate Jerry’s tendencies. Prior to trading for Galloway, the Cowboys had a hole at WR with Michael Irvin retiring; in addition, the Cowboys had some relatively successful seasons. In 1998: 10-6 and in 1999: 8-8. Jerry saw Galloway as a piece that could keep Dallas in the playoff mix and contend for years to come. The Galloway trade may have been the worst trade in Cowboys history. Galloway played through several season ending injuries from 2000-2003.
Roy Williams was brought to Dallas for a 1st, 3rd, and 6th round pick. Again, prior to adding Williams, the Cowboys had some success and playoff births. In 2006: 9-7 and in 2007: 13-3. The Cowboys knew 2008 would be Terrell Owens‘ last season in Dallas, so Jerry wanted to plug in Roy Williams in hopes the Cowboys would not miss a beat. It was a disaster, Williams was injury prone and never averaged more than 40 catches or 600 yards a season. This trade set the franchise back and the notorious 2009 draft class was the icing on the cake. Not one player remains from 2009. Williams played from 2008-2010.
So six years removed from that huge blunder and after the dust has settled from the 2008 trade, is Jerry poised to make another blockbuster trade? I think that answer revolves around DeMarcus Ware. Jerry seems to panic when a “franchise” player leaves. Just as with Irvin and Owens leaving, if Ware is released, then watch out. Jerry’s trade juices will be flowing come draft day. The Cowboys would be in a precarious position losing both Hatcher and Ware leading up to the draft. The average fan would just like to see us stick to our board and draft the next pass rusher extraordinaire and this may be the whole reasoning with adding Will McClay to the draft process. But, as we know, Jerry has the final call, and could go off the range by going all-in to get someone like Clowney who is this year’s consensus pass rushing monster. All of this, coupled with the Cowboys coming so close to the playoffs with triplicate 8-8 seasons could have Jerry thinking we are close and make a crazy trade.
How much Jerry need to give up to trade up?
If the #1 pick is 3000 points, and the #16 pick is 1000 points, Jerry would need to trade the war chest and history has said this would be costly for Dallas, for another decade. Where it gets interesting is if someone like Clowney falls to #4 at 1800 points. Cleveland is a mess but has 2 first rounders this year, if they could make a blockbuster deal with Dallas, they could, in essence turn around that franchise in one draft. Then you have Oakland #5 at 1700 points. Could Jerry work a deal with his friends in Oakland? Yes, this all sounds bereft of reason, but this is a Jerry Jones GM ran franchise. You just never know.
Its going to be interesting to see what the Cowboys do with DeMarcus Ware and its really a no win situation. If we keep Ware and he flops again then everyone will be calling for Jerry’s head, and if Ware leaves and has a Pro Bowl caliber season elsewhere, then its the same thing. We are in a serious rut with Ware, but if anyone is going to take a gamble on Ware, Jerry is the guy to do it. We just have to hope cooler heads prevail in that war room come May. Stick to the board, bolster the defensive line, infuse some depth and let Marinelli work his magic.