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This is a story I’ll be watching this camp. Marcus Spears is pretty close to being a certified bust. First question will be whether or not he can actually finish a camp healthy, and whether or not someone can finally bounce him from the starting role. I look for Jason Hatcher to get the nod here, he’s shown more explosion during games, and has been a menace in the backfield harrassing the QB. Jay Ratliff could also see some time at DE, that’s the word so far. I would have to say that a Ratliff/Hatcher combo would be one of the best rotations on defense if this were the case.

DMN Blog has a small comment on Spears by saying:

The threat of more time on the sideline would seem like a great motivator for a guy with two seasons left on his rookie contract. Spears certainly looked like he had a fire lit beneath him this morning.

This is the same thing we saw from Spears each of the last camps, he looks the part in camp, but completely disappears during the season, please, let’s move on to some real defense like Hatcher. I’m done with Spears, he can gets raves during camp all he wants, but its the same story each year. I’m not even sure this is a make or break year for Spears, its more like he’ll need to play well to get some snaps for a new contract for another team, we’re not re-signing him.

The prodigal son has returned, sorry for my brief absence, it’s been busy around here this month, but with camp drawing closer I’m back despite it all. A lot of the talk has been around Terry Glenn and Adam Jones in recent weeks, but I’d like to broach the issue of THE backup. THE, being the most important backup spot on the roster, the #2 QB.

Last season we managed to keep Romo safe, but at one point Romo has dinged his finger, and we all saw the effects even if they were ever so slight. Should Romo be out for any amount of time, this high octane offense would be in Brad Johnson’s hands.

I’ll be the first to admit, I was all for signing Brad Johnson, I liked the idea, but after watching him in camp last year and in the preseason, he looked marginally average at best. Add another year, and the results surely aren’t going to be better. I think the Cowboys would be wise to look at some other options, Mainly that of picking up a free agent or trading a late pick to acquire Chris Simms.

What do you guys think, is Brad Johnson the answer this year?

We could see some more trades, but if we stay in the 5th round, here’s who I’d look at:

Tommy Blake, DE, TCU

Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia

John David Booty, QB, USC

Josh Barrett, S, Arizona State

I’m going with the same list I came up for 2nd round possibilities, Bennett was atop my list and the Cowboys took him. I think Beau Bell could be the guy if he is there, also look for Owen Schmitt to being the bull dozing FB Moose type back Garrett wants. The Cowboys are drafting late in the third round. If available, here are some players to watch at #92:

LB Beau Bell, UNLV

FB Owen Schmitt, West Virginia

WR Will Franklin, Missouri

S DaJuan Morgan, NC State

DT Pat Sims, Auburn

The Cowboys are drafting late in the second round. If available, here are some players to watch at #61:

TE Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M

LB Beau Bell, UNLV

FB Owen Schmitt, West Virginia

WR Will Franklin, Missouri

S DaJuan Morgan, NC State

DT Pat Sims, Auburn

Ok, now that we just traded Akin Ayodele and Anthony Fasano for Miami’s 4th rounder, how does this change our draft strategy? Let’s begin to speculate….

First off this is a good move to me. Ayodele did not produce the numbers that Phillips had hoped, you can pencil in Bobby Carpenter in at MLB, alongside Zach Thomas. Spencer and Ellis will continue to rotate at OLB.

The late 4th rounder we lost to the Titans has been replenished with the Dolphins 1st pick of the 4th rounder, basically a late 3rd rounder.

Current picks:

#22
#28
#61
#92
#100 (from Dolphins)

Packaging Picks for Roy Williams 

That’s pretty stout. Now for the interesting part. Is Jerry maneuvering for some blockbuster trade? Could the Cowboys be packaging some sort of trade in the same vein as the Vikings (1st rounder and two 3rd rounders). The Cowboys have added some significant ammo by adding the Dolphins 4th rounder. Its possible the Cowboys could package the #22, #92, #100 pick to someone for a receiver, Roy Williams makes the most sense all around.
Keeping the Picks

If the Cowboys keep the Miami pick in the 4th rounder, then they can still use it to move up in another round if they need to. This whole move can payoff if the right player becomes available and we utilize the 4th rounder correctly.

Draft Impact on losing Ayodele and Fasano

Obviously we’re now short another solid LB, so you could see the Cowboys drafting a LB in a mid round or earlier if their player falls to them, whomever that may be.

Losing Fasano, gets interesting because, he was a solid #2 TE, the emergence of  Tony Curtis may have made Fasano expendable, but I’m not completely sold on that theory. I think the Cowboys could end up targeting another TE. Dustin Keller from Purdue would be a great addition, he runs routes like a WR, has speed, and had a great combine. He’s going to be explosive in the passing game. If we’re going to add a receiver, adding Keller would make sense, he’ll move the chains; coupled with Witten and Owens, this would be a nightmare scenario for DBs/LBs. Another name to watch is Martellus Bennett from Texas A&M. The Cowboys brought in Bennett during “Texas Day” and he could be on their radar somewhere in this draft. If the Cowboys think Rodney Hannah can step up from the practice squad then we may not draft a TE at all, we’ll see.

Darren McFadden

And of course, this trade, and packaging theory could also mean the Cowboys will sell the house to get McFadden. The scenario would have Al Davis selecting McFadden, and the Cowboys would send both first rounders, #92, and #100, or something alike. For me, this would be stupid and would reverse all the offseason manuvering. We’re NOT one player away from the SuperBowl, we’re several key players away. I’ll throw up if this happens.

Conventional wisdom would say the Cowboys should stay put at #22 and #28, or at least trade down one of those picks and get more value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. However, during the Cowboys pre-draft press conference, Jerry Jones made it crystal clear who is the man making the selections at the end of the day. Jerry basically said he’ll get his input from the scouts and coaches, but he’ll be the man making the calls.

Clearly the Cowboys are a few players away from having a championship roster, mainly with the shortcomings in the secondary, so staying put and adding quality with the first picks makes the most sense to me, and probably most of you. BUT, Jerry is making the calls, and he’s a gambler, and if Jerry thinks we’re one player away from making the Super Bowl, we’ll see a crazy blockbuster trade that will send #22 and #28 to the Lions for WR Roy Williams. It’s a high price to pay, but like I’ve said in several articles before, Jerry basically set a precedent by giving (2) 1st rounders for a receiver (Joey Galloway). Would Jerry do this again? You bet, and if you think he wouldn’t do it you’re dissolutioned. If Jerry does plan on trading two first rounders for Roy Williams, I would hope it would be for the first this year, and the other for 2009, I could live with that one. If you’re the Lions you make the trade, and don’t look back. The Lions would have (2) first round picks this year, maybe (3) if the Cowboys trade both first rounders they own this year, and if anyone needs their team to win this year, its Matt Millen and Rod Marenelli. If they don’t make the playoffs they are both gone.

Selling the house is very risky, because we have obvious needs in the secondary, and we need the best defensive backs out there. Yes, pairing Roy Williams with Terrell Owens would be unstoppable, but you can score all day, but if your defense leaves teams in the game through 4 quarters, then it doesn’t even matter. December defense has been really shaky, we need more help.
If anyone has Jerry’s ear its going to be Jason Garrett in my opinion. He’s probably one of the smartest coaches in the entire league, and if Jerry wants to draft for Garrett, then he’ll stay put and draft smart. There is no rush in getting Roy Williams, he’ll be a free agent next season and the Cowboys can get him then. We will see.

For me, Stay put and draft, don’t sell the house.

We’re on the home stretch for the NFL Draft, and as every year, the high drama always seems to revolve the Cowboys with trade rumors all offseason. Come draft day we’ll see if any of these rumors come to fruition. I’m going to take a look at some topics to watch come draft day.

Garrett Effect

At the end of the season, it looked like Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett was on his way to taking the head coaching job in Baltimore. Garrett opted to remain with the Cowboys, and in doing so, he received a hefty raise, and the Assistant Head Coach title. What made Garrett return to Dallas? His love for the organization, the chance to be the Cowboys Head Coach in 2009? Who really knows, but I do know this…having Garrett back is going to make this offense that much more better. To me, its going to be interesting to see which way this draft goes. All the mockers are targeting a cornerback with the first pick, but what if the Cowboys were to take an Offensive Lineman at #22, and then a WR or RB with the #28 pick or visa/versa? If we see this scenario, it could be seen a as a draft geared for Garrett. You know Garrett wants nothing but big offensive lineman, and tall receivers.

If you look at last year’s draft picks, you could even say the Garrett influence started last year. Yes, we drafted Spencer in the 1st round, but the bulk of the draft was offensive intensive with James Marten (6-7, 303) in the 3rd, Isaiah Stanback (6-2, 208) and Doug Free (6-6, 306) in the 4th, Nick Folk and Deon Anderson in the 6th round, and last picks in the 7th on Courtney Brown and Alan Ball. Marten, Stanback, and Free have the big physical attributes Garrett wants at those positions.
With all this being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys took another offensive lineman somewhere early, whether it be a tackle, guard, or even a center. Another tall receiver could be picked up too, really depends on how Stanback is progressing. Lastly, I think Garrett would still like to get his “Moose” in the backfield, and to me that’s Owen Schmitt from West Virginia, or maybe Jerry’s fellow alum in Peyton Hillis. We’ll see.

Insurance Picks

With potential contract issues with Marion Barber and Ken Hamlin, the Cowboys have the luxury of insuring both positions in the first round, whether that be with Kenny Phillips at #22, and Felix Jones at #28 or visa/versa. Phillips is going to be a solid player, and if the supposed leak mock board leak was true or not, they did have Phillips high on that board. So drafting both in the first would be smart moves, and would contributing forces on day one. Now, assuming we eventually sign Barber and Hamlin to long term deals, the offense and defense will be that much better.

Draft Day Trading

For some reason, I see the Cowboys trading that #28 pick to someone wanting back into the 1st round to pick up a quarterback or some other position. I think Atlanta will be one of those teams looking to leapfrog back into the 1st, They will take an offensive player in the first, but if they take defense, they will trade back into the 1st, they have the firepower to jumpback into the 1st, and the Cowboys would be the prefect trading partner. What about taking Chad Johnson with the #22 or #28 pick. Chad Johnson has turned up the heat on wanting out of Cincinnati, he wants to be a Cowboy, thus the increased banter is in full effect and his strategy could pay off come draft day, they may fully oblige a trade to Dallas.

With the draft less than two weeks away, the draft boards are nearly completed, but the Cowboys are not hinting where they plan on taking this draft. One thing is for sure, the Cowboys need to hit on their first day picks. I believe our first 4 picks of this draft will play pivotal roles on both sides of the ball this year. We have all seen the latest mock drafts out there, and in all seriousness none are ever near accurate. I’m going to throw my hat into it now with my prediction on our first day picks.

#22: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

This year has a good crop of defensive backs, and the Cowboys weakness on defense remains in the secondary. Talib has the physical tools, confidence, and swagger we haven’t had in the secondary since Deion Sanders was back there. I don’t see DRC or McKelvin lasting to #22. Talib would probably be phased in at nickel corner at first, and that’s already a huge upgrade from Reeves in 2007. Eventually, Henry will get injured as in years past, at which point, Talib will take stranglehold opposite Newman and won’t look back.

Alternate: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

#28: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina

Ask me a few weeks ago, about this scenario, and I would probably not have thought much of it, but looking at how the draft could shape up, taking Balmer in the first round would make a lot more sense to me than I thought before. Balmer can be a stout force in the 3-4, he has all the measurables, and he may not even make it to #28, but if he’s there, we take him. We recently re-signed Jay Ratliff, and he’s been solid at NT while Ferguson was gone. Ratliff came out of college as a DE, but had that versatility in his resume and we’ve capitalized on it. Spears will not be back next year, so we’d have Hatcher and would need another DE. Ratliff can be in rotation with Hatcher and Balmer. This being said, I see the Cowboys taking another DE in this draft for just this very scenario. We’re going to need more depth at DE.

Alternate: Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

#61: Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas

I’d like to have Chris Johnson in the 2nd round, but he probably won’t last until late into the 2nd round. I believe Charles will be there, and he’ll make a great change-up back to MB3. He has the speed and game breaking runs we can use to keep defense unbalanced between play calls.

Alternate: Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana

#92: Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech

Adding Royal would be a solid pick, and he could easily be gone in the 2nd round, and may not make it late into the 3rd round, but if you’re going to wait to add a receiver, 3rd round is the latest you can wait, and if Royal is there the Cowboys take him. He has game breaking ability, he’s elusive, speed, and solid in the return game. We know Owens, and Crayton are starting WRs. We’re not sure what the status of Glenn will be, I think he’s future will be determined after the draft. Sam Hurd probably makes the team, Austin is out. Stanback is another question mark, potential doesn’t answer squat for me, I want to see him get extensive play in the preseason, otherwise add another receiver with Royal - a solid WR.

Alternate: Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia

So, that’s where I’m on for day one of the draft:

#22: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
#28: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
#61: Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
#92: Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech

Alternate Picks:

#22: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
#28: Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
#61: Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
#92: Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia

If the draft went with all the alternate picks, I’d be very happy with the first day of the draft. Sweed would be a good addition to the draft. I still believe Garrett wants that taller Alvin Harper type receiver to play opposite T.O. and Sweed would fit the bill. Kenny Phillips would be the insurance pick for the future at safety. We have to see what plays out with Hamlin’s contract and whether or not Roy Williams remains with us past 2008. Phillips is a playmaker and would be a solid fit in our system. Tracy Porter is a cornerback the Cowboys like and he already visited Valley Ranch, so you know he’s on the radar. Owen Schmitt is your Moose Johnston FB in this year’s draft, and if Garrett wants to get his Moose it starts and ends with Schmitt somewhere in this draft. Last year the Cowboys were looking at Brian Leonard, but he got scooped up by the lowly Rams. Schmitt would be the guy this year in my opinion.

Trading out of the First Round:

Don’t be surprised if the Cowboys trade that #28 pick to a team that wants to move back into the first round. I see more value in the 2nd and 3rd round this year, so trading out and grabbing some more picks would be great with me.

Trading for Veteran Receiver Scenario:

I think if the Cowboys are going to trade for a Veteran receiver we’ll hear about it a few days before the draft, a contract would need to be negotiated, and the draft pick relinquished to whatever team we trade with. The trade would be hefty though, I’m guessing a 1st rounder and 2nd rounder or 1st rounder this year and 1st rounder next year. Like I said in a previous article, Jerry almost set a precedent in trading picks for a receiver when he gave up alot for Galloway, albeit he was restricted, it still gives GMs some leverage in wanting more picks from Jerry knowing he would do it. Would Jerry give up two first round picks for Anquan Boldin or Roy Williams, you cannot say no, because he very well could, and what teams would pass on two first round picks for a WR, especially average teams like the Cardinals and Lions. How many players are we away from getting over the top? If Jerry thinks we are 1 or two players away, we’ll see this crazy trade come true for sure. For me though, we’re still a few players away from a championship roster. The secondary was never fixed by Parcells and remains the Achilles heel of the defense. How sold are you on the front 3? See, we still have some shortcomings. You can have a dominating offense, but if your defense is not just as good, then it won’t matter. The defense still has some catching up to do.

I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of the Adam Jones talk, aren’t you, seriously? One very interesting tidbit of news that seems to have been overlooked has been the scheduled private workout of USC’s Keith Rivers. Keith Rivers is an explosive linebacker, and would be projected as a middle linebacker in the 3-4 scheme. The interesting thing about this is the “private workout” Typically, when a team is giving you a private workout, you’re in their scope for serious consideration at being drafted.

Some of you may say we’re stacked at LB, and probably don’t need another LB, especially in the first round. For me, I still think there’s a 50% chance of this actually happening; in which, the Cowboys draft CB with #22, and LB with #28. You do have to remember that LBs are gold in a 3-4, and you can never have enough, and this is where Rivers comes into play.

Think about the depth we have…we have the obvious starters, Ware, Ellis, Ayodele, and James. I would say with the exception of Ware, all these guys are upgradeable, but mainly Ayodele. Phillips has stated that Ayodele’s position in his 3-4 usually has more production and impact, Ayodele has not done this, he’s been a solid stop-gap. Akin has become another Al Singleton, he’s good, he’s serviceable, but he’s not remembered, he doesn’t make plays that make you remember he’s even there…its weird.

Yes, we have Zach Thomas, but like I said before, he’s one bad tackle or one bad concussion from an in-season retirement. Plan as though he is not here. Kevin Burnett will not be re-signed, he’s injury prone, we all know this. Greg Ellis has maybe 2-3yrs left in the tank, and he too has some durability issues creeping up on him now. And do we know what to do with Carpenter yet? I would like to see him at MLB instead of Ayodele, but who even knows.

Keith Rivers is a first round talent, and would be a very good addition to the linebackers for sure, but I still think cornerback trumps all positions with our first pick this year. I think a corner late in the first would be scraps, we need a premiere corner to groom at nickel and prep to replace Henry when he gets his yearly nagging ankle injury.